It is a curious question asked by many after the impeachment of Sara Duterte by the House of Representatives. There are pros as there are cons.
There is one variable that is of essential regard — the number of Duterte hyperpartisans. The present Senate has four. They are Bong Go, Bato dela Rosa, Robin Padilla, and Imee Marcos. Those four will certainly vote without doubt for Sara Duterte’s acquittal. Padilla has already said he will vote NO. (Somebody advise Padilla that in an impeachment verdict, there is no NO vote; it is either one convicts or one acquits).
The present Senate counts only 23 senators. To win an acquittal for Sara, it would need only eight votes to acquit. With her sure four, Sara only needs four more senators to have an acquittal. For the pro-impeachment voices, the present Senate may not be their vehicle.
Those who view the incoming Senate after June 30 say it will be a better impeachment court because Imee Marcos — kulelat in all current surveys — may be sure to lose her reelection. That is a reasonable observation. Furthermore, the next Senate will have the full complement of 24 senators. That means it will take nine votes to acquit. Sara will need more arm-twisting to achieve that number.
But to go back to the variable — how many Duterte partisans will there be in the incoming Senate?
As the latest polls go, the senatorial election will decidedly be a popularity contest. Populism is in the here and now. And with it comes a frightful warning — prepare for a senator Willie Revillame, like it or not. Albeit running as an independent, Revillame will show his true form after winning a seat — a dyed-in-the-wool Duterte Diehard Supporter. He said it was Rodrigo Duterte who convinced him to run, even if he is not running in the Duterte senatorial ticket.
The TV host/comedian landed 12th in the latest Social Weather Stations survey commissioned by the Stratbase Group polled from January 17 to 20. His fellow Duterte hyperpartisans Go and Dela Rosa came out 3rd and 4th.
Compare that to the Radio Mindanao Network (RMN) Oculum survey done last December 16-22 using 1,200 adult respondents and declared voters nationwide. Go was 5th to 8th, Dela Rosa was 6th to 8th, and Revillame 10th to 12th. There is a consistent drift.
The next Senate will still have four Duterte hyperpartisans — Go, Dela Rosa, Revillame, and the sitting Robin Padilla. But that will not be all.
Like it or not, the next Senate will have three Tulfo senators: the sitting Raffy, then survey No. 1 Erich Sylvester (Erwin), and Ben. For the first time in history, three family members will sit in the Senate, all because of their populist appeal that they deliver swift justice (Note: Senator Raffy Tulfo did not do ipa-Tulfo mo on his EDSA buslane violator of a son Ralph who sits as congressman). It is proof that populism is founded on charades.
There are currently three Tulfos in the House: Erich Sylvester, Jocelyn Pua Tulfo (wife of Senator Raffy Tulfo), and Ralph Tulfo (son of Raffy and Jocelyn). In the House impeachment, only two Tulfos signed the impeachment complaint (Jocelyn and Ralph). Erich Sylvester did not.
That may be an indication of how three Tulfo senators will vote in an impeachment court. To play it safe, believing that they are there to please pro-Duterte voters (because they began as DDS backers), one or two Tulfos will vote to acquit. Plus the four Duterte hyperpartisans, there may be six votes for acquittal. In which case, Sara will only need three more acquittal votes.
Then there is the reelectionist variable. The next Senate will have no more reelectionists who will carry the baggage of voting according to their senatorial ticket’s loyalty. Bong Revilla, Lito Lapid, Pia Cayetano will by then be sitting in the next Senate. Reelectionist Francis Tolentino is currently faring dismally in the polls. But in the present Senate, there is a sword of Damocles hanging over their heads — the danger of being canceled out if they will not do the Marcos Jr. bidding of impeaching Sara.
That variable is not a light one and is not to be dismissed. Last-minute cancels is common praxis in many past elections. Expect the reelectionists to vote to convict in the present Senate, but not necessarily in the next Senate when they will be free of pressure. Marcos Jr. can become a lame duck anytime within the next three years because of his weakling handicap.
The same predicament can hound the mother and son Cynthia and Mark Villar. There were speculations that both Villars may vote to acquit in the present Senate. They can of course do that with their debt of gratitude to Rodrigo Duterte for appointing Mark as his secretary of public works. But that was past. The present is daunting — Camille Villar is trailing very badly in 15th place in the polls. She may lose.
In fact, the most ironic twist in this senatorial campaign is how popularity has fully overtaken campaign ads. Camille Villar has breached P1 billion in ads spending. The Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism (PCIJ) used measurable data from Nielsen Ad Intel. Yet her latest standing at the polls is somewhere at 15th to 20th.
But if mother and brother vote to convict in the present Senate, Camille can still land within the top 12. The Marcos Jr. administration can work wonders out of gratitude. Elections in this country have never been clean.
That same sword of Damocles can fall on senators in the current Senate who are not reelectionists but whose family members have been appointed by Marcos Jr. to high government positions. In fact, we can now understand why they were appointed in the first place: to bring their loyalties to the Marcos Jr. side.
Who are these senators? One is Sherwin Gatchalian, whose brother Rex is Marcos Jr.’s alter ego as secretary of the Department of Social Welfare and Development. The other is Jinggoy Estrada whose daughter Janella Ejercito Estrada was appointed to lead the National Authority for Child Care with the rank of DSWD Undersecretary.
If they do not vote to convict, Gatchalian’s and Estrada’s appointed family members will be vulnerable to Malacañang’s ax. And then it will trickle down to their political capital. Both families have intense political interests to protect, including financial, in the case of the Gatchalians.
The final variable will be the public judgment. Manila’s taxi drivers will surely tune in to the impeachment court proceedings. I recall one during the Estrada impeachment hearings. He said he voted for Estrada. After tuning in daily to the hearings, he said he got convinced that Estrada must be convicted.
It is reciprocal. The senator judges themselves will be listening to the public pulse. That is where momentum comes in. That momentum was already there — 41% of Filipinos favored Sara’s impeachment, 35% disagreed, and 19% were undecided. The poll was conducted by SWS and commissioned by the same Stratbase Group using face-to-face interviews of adult respondents nationwide. Public distrust and outrage was there. The number of those who favor may even rise.
That momentum can fade in the next few months. The clamor for impeachment is popular. A public that is made to wait after June 30 can be drained in exasperation. And that momentum can be lost. With an impeachment trial in the present Senate, it can seize the day.
Finally, the only variable that cannot be altered is the Constitution. Article XI (Accountability of Public Officers), Section 3 No. 4 states: In case the verified complaint or resolution of impeachment is filed by at least one-third of all the Members of the House, the same shall constitute the Articles of Impeachment, and trial by the Senate shall forthwith proceed.
“Forthwith proceed.” Forthwith: immediately, straightaway, instantly, directly, without delay, at once. There is nothing there about the Senate that has gone on recess or vacation for the campaign period. It means now. – Rappler.com