MANILA, Philippines — Eights months ago, Joe Biden, Kishida Fumio, and Ferdinand Marcos Jr. walked, shoulder-to-shoulder, down Cross Hall in the White House for what the American president described as a “historic moment” and a “new era of a partnership.”
By January 21, Marcos will be the only remaining sitting leader from that iconic photo op. Biden is stepping down to make way for Donald Trump’s return, while Kishida stepped down in September 2024 amid corruption scandals within their ruling Liberal Democratic Party.
Biden convened the two key US allies jointly again, this time via video conference on Monday, January 13 (late January 12 in Washington DC). It will likely be the last time for Biden, under whose presidency bilateral ties with the Philippines grew by leaps and bounds, to convene with his counterparts from the Philippines and Japan.
“Together the three Leaders discussed trilateral maritime security and economic cooperation, as well as the People’s Republic of China’s dangerous and unlawful behavior in the South China Sea. The three Leaders agreed on the importance of continued coordination to advance a free and open Indo-Pacific,” read the White House’s short readout from the meeting, which was rescheduled from Sunday evening because of the Los Angeles wildfires.
Malacañang, whose release emphasized a trilateral commitment to continue the relationship, also included a quote from Biden: “Our countries have an interest in continuing this partnership and institutionalizing our cooperation across our governments so that it is built to last. I’m optimistic that my successor will also see the value of continuing this partnership, and that it is framed the right way.”
This is how Biden framed the importance of bringing together its two allies through a trilateral leaders summit: “A great deal of history in our world will be written in the Indo-Pacific over the coming years and the three — as the three allies, three steadfast partners, and three proud democracies representing a half a billion people.”
Both Japan and the Philippines are treaty-allies of the United States. The Philippines and Japan also have a very close relationship, brought even closer by the ratification of the Reciprocal Access Agreement in December 2024. Both the US and Japan were once colonizers of the Philippines
“We commit to writing that story and a future together, to building an Indo-Pacific that is free, open, prosperous, and secure for all,” said Biden in April 2024 — just a few months before the twists and turns of the US Presidential Elections that would ultimately lead to Trump’s return.
Ishiba, according to Malacañang, said it was “important to deepen trilateral cooperation in a variety of fields.” Japanese Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi will be visiting Manila on the 15th, even as he’s trying to organize a foreign ministers meeting between the QUAD (the US, Japan, India, and Australia) to include Trump’s presumptive foreign affairs chief Marco Rubio.
Much has changed in the domestic sphere here at home, too.
Vice President Sara Duterte officially broke off from the administration and the once-vaunted Marcos-Duterte “Uniteam” coalition.
In fact, as Marcos met with Biden and Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru, over a million members of the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC), a religious group that backed the Uniteam tandem in 2022, gathered at the Quirino Grandstand for a “rally for peace.”
While the INC, understood and seen to be influential in Philippine politics, claim it’s an apolitical event, it’s widely understood to be a gathering in support of Duterte, and of Marcos’ apparent stand that impeaching his 2022 running-mate would be “for nothing” and a “storm in a tea cup.” (My colleague, Paterno Esmaquel, explains the INC’s political play here.)
And then, of course, there’s the 2025 midterm elections — the first real referendum on both President Marcos and the Dutertes (Vice President Duterte and her father, mayoralty returnee and former president Rodrigo.)
The ‘Monster’ is back
But there is at least one thing that has not changed at all: China’s incursions, expansion, or attempts to control more and more of the West Philippine Sea.
In the waters of Scarborough Shoal (Bajo de Masinloc) and just some 70-90 nautical miles from the Zambales coast, the China Coast Guard (CCG) has been sending one ship after another, including the infamous 12,000-ton 5901 or the “Monster ship.”
It’s been a low intensity situation thus far, with confrontations limited mostly to radio challenges, the too-close-for-comfort hovering of a Chinese military helicopter over a Philippine Coast Guard ship, and the constant presence of CCG ships. Hopefully, tensions do not rise further.
In a statement over the weekend, the PCG’s Commodore Jay Tarriela said based on their analysis, the CCG’s ships were right at the “fourth dash line” — a reference to China’s 10-dash line claim, which includes most of the South China Sea.
“Their goal is to normalize such deployments, and if these actions go unnoticed and unchallenged, it will enable them to alter the existing status quo. This strategy of normalization, followed by altering the status quo and ultimately operationalizing their illegal narrative, has consistently been part of the Chinese playbook,” said Tarriela.
This has been part of Beijing’s strategy in the West Philippine Sea — smaller incursions and actions that lead up to a change in status quo and a plus in China’s bigger goal of controlling more and more features in the vast South China Sea.
It’s a strategy that cannot be countered through a show of brute strength — of which the Philippines is wanting, especially in contrast to China.
So what’s Manila to do? Allocate much-needed resources into its military and the PCG, create programs for fisherfolk (who are among the country’s poorest), and properly fund agencies that are tasked to protect the country’s vast maritime resources.
And at the same time, it turns to its ally and friends — not just for moral, but material support. The US has pledged $500 million in military financing, on top of the money it’s already allocated and will be allocating to develop Enhance Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) sites. Japan will be providing the Philippines with new vessels for the PCG, aside from coastal radars for the military.
Analysts have said, again and again, that American support will continue — again, citing how there’s bipartisan consensus for Manila’s importance.
But when the President-elect-slash-returnee has spoken little about the South China Sea and China, while saying a lot about taking the Panama Canal and… Greenland, it will be hard to believe in ironclad commitments to a region miles and miles away. – Rappler.com